So long as $ES stays above the orange box, I am inclined to count it as an impulsive 1-2 to the upside. Yesterday’s bonkers rally looks impulsive, the decline looks to be in 3-waves (at least so far) and came to the 50-61.8% retracement of the advance. This minuette (orange) 1-2 produces a target of 4840.
It’s not clear to me if this should be a nest (with yesterday’s price action being a 1-2 of minute [blue] degree). That would produce a strange and unrealistic fib relationship between the size of blue one and blue three. So perhaps minor (green) 2 belongs where I presently have minute (blue) 2. I will need to give that part some more thought.
It is positive that oil has finally recaptured its 13-year trend. So long as it can hold that, it may produce a fairly big rally.
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