Since indices overnight have made new lows, I will need to update some counts I have recently provided for $ES and $YM (here and here). Assuming we’re not crashing, we can modify the structures to accept the lower lows as I’ve noted below.
I know it sucks trying to catch falling knives, but I don’t yet see enough signals suggesting that the ultra-bear count is the best one here. I think it remains more likely for the time being that we’re bottoming somehow for this big green 2.
$ES (note the channel support here—that goes all the way back to the COVID lows):
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