My main conclusion remains that the market will go up from here eventually, and very sharply so.
Now, on the particulars, the $ES count from this morning remains valid, and backed up a bit looks like this:
Now, I’d like to place it under some criticism because it’s been an odd structure, and I’ve kind of bungled it here the last couple of days. I’ve been sort of expecting a flat for green 2, and all that is required for the last leg of that is any 5-wave move. But they kept coming, unexpectedly. And now, as it stands, it’s sort of huge. Twos should be somewhat quick, sharp, and resolve quickly into subsequent third waves. This two has been enormous in both price and time. It’s retraced almost the entirety of minor (green) 1, and it’s taken almost the same amount of time as minor (green) 1. That’s just almost silly. It should take around a third to a half as much time, and retrace about 50-60% in price. And expecting those has caused me to muck this last stage of it up. And so that leaves us with a question: Is it even a two? And maybe it isn’t, and here’s another way we can account for it. I was expecting—in the chart above—that big primary (pink) B to already be in place. But the intermediate (orange) E can be any 3-wave move and it’s possible that it wasn’t done yet and like Epimetheus, I’ve only discovered that after the fact.
The big broadening formation we’ve been in recently could very well have been a B-wave of its own, and perhaps all of the price action from the November 22nd high forward has been a single structure, a big, churning mess while institutions position themselves for the next quarter or something like that. All of this endlessly heavy price action might be “one” wave, the E-wave. And perhaps it should look like this:
There is also a way to move C and D in the chart above to a prior high and low, and thus E (and with it, pink B) back to the October low. In which case this entire thing from the October low can be viewed as a very big 1-2 as well.
It doesn’t change my basic belief that we will be going up when this corrective period is finished (that could be now). Once we get out of this, we should enter a powerful, trending market that will move directionally for weeks at a time.