Some Various Thoughts on $ES

I am presently inclined to continue to count $ES as a nice, big impulse wave here. So far, my first instinct is to count us as within minute (blue) 3 of minor (green) 1. Blue 3 may have finished today or it may still be a bit ahead of us. If this count is correct, we would like to see some consolidation for minute (blue) 4 followed by one more rally to complete the structure before getting a 3-wave pullback for minor (green) 2.

ES

That said, there are a couple of things that may support an even more bullish count, though I often find it hard to call for such counts as they feel aggressive to me.

But, a few points on this possibility.


One: On this count, minuette (orange) two and four are both sideways and time consuming. This isn’t a hard rule, rather a guideline, but it is better to see alternation between the corrections. If one is sideways and slow, the other should be sharp and fast by comparison.

ES


Two: Likewise on this count, subminuette (red) two and four also seem to lack alternation as they both seem sharp and fast.

ES


Three: Also, if we draw a polyline on the peaks and troughs of the wave structure so far, we can see that the steepest part of the rally has been in the wave “ones.” Blue and orange one both had faster acceleration than any of the waves since.

ES

The whole thing, despite the look of shooting up on longer timeframe charts, still has this sort of stair-steppy feel to it. And that’s often how the ones and two begin. So, hmm. I kind of wonder if we still haven’t seen the 3rd wave of this yet, believe it or not. I feel like that part of the wave structure is really accelerating to the upside, a real painful move for the bears, and this doesn’t yet quite feel like that to me. Of course I’m not insisting that’s going to happen, just saying it might (that we’re just getting started still).


Four & Five: Couple other things might support this, too:

Bitcoin—rallying as I expected here—looks to only be entering its 3rd of 3rd of 3rd of 1. If that’s so, if should really propel itself forward from here. And Bitcoin tends to lead. If it’s only just entering its 3rd of 3rd of 1 now, where in the hell are we at in equities?

BTC

As with $BTC, so too with $OIL. I believe it is only just entering its own 3rd of 1. That is to say, it’s only just now entering it’s most accelerated wave, and it, too, tends to lead.

OIL


At any rate, I’m not entirely sure how I would count the S&P in that case, but perhaps more basically on the cash session, we could do something like this:

SPX

So for instance, if we see a real monster gap on Monday, then we would think we’re in the 3rd of the 3rd of the 3rd or something.


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