Present Thoughts on an $ES Count

I don’t see any bearish divergence on $ES to justify the thought that we could be at the end of minor green 1 yet. The high RSI here should be coinciding with a third wave of some degree. So, I would like to think that we’re going to be wrapping up minute (blue) 3 sometime soonish. We’re approaching a good fib for that (the 2.618 extension of minute [blue] 1). If that is so, the rally should pause in some way for minute (blue) 4 before a final rally to complete the structure.

That said, as you’re all familiar with, timing these things is quite difficult, and rallies can go on longer than we can sometimes expect. But, at some point—this week?—we should be finishing minor (green) 1 after which we should see a more significant 3-wave pullback for minor (green) 2. It may retrace 50-61.8% of this rally (from wherever the rally finally ends), but sometimes on a breakout to new all-time highs, they can be far more shallow, coming back only to retest the prior all-time high, as I’ve depicted it here in this chart for the sake of example.

I hope everyone had a lovely holiday (for those of you who celebrated it).


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