Strictly Precautionary Bearish $ES Count

I do not think this is probable (we look to be in a clear impulse wave). But I have no bear count in mind and that bothers me a very great deal. I like to have at least something that I can reach out to if things get weird and one problem with the bull count is literally that it’s now such an obvious impulse wave. I don’t see anyone carrying a reasonable bear count and that always makes me very nervous.

Historically, this week is very bullish for the markets. Sellers are limited because some folks want to defer capital gains taxes, and buyers are elevated because some folks want to max out their tax-deferred investment accounts. Everybody knows that and everybody’s betting on that and I get nervous in crowds.

So, in the spirit of looking both ways down the street, let’s try this. As you know, I was forced by the selling pressure to interpret the broadening formation we were just in as a large minor (green) “B-wave.” But: How can I know that it is actually finished?

I can’t.

We still sort of are in that wildly volatile pattern. I can extend the previous lines right out to these highs and the last lows. Hmm.

ES

This is only precautionary: I presently don’t believe it is probable but it is possible. For instance, Bitcoin has failed to really impulse up as I expected (it should be entering its 3rd of 3rd of 3rd, and it’s not acting like it yet). Perhaps its lethargy is warning us that we’re not quite ready for hardcore risk on yet.


Now, how would we tell?

—If minute (blue) 3 is in (my primary count), then minute (blue) 4 shouldn’t really go below this orange box:

ES

—If minor (green) 1 is in, we shouldn’t go below this orange box:

ES

If we’re actually still within a big “B-Wave,” the next move would be a large 5-wave impulse for minor (green) C (wrapping up orange E of pink B) and it should slice through both of those levels. So, just in case, if we do have some unexpected selloff, maybe take another glance at this possibility. There’s just something that’s bugging me here: this impulse wave was too easy. Or something. I can’t quite put my finger on it. $JNK is up, but only in 3-waves, $OIL is also up, but also only in 3 waves (so far). So, just stay frosty out there folks.

ES


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