I want to add this to my list of risk signals that are creeping in to my attention.
My expectation was for $OIL to be in its 3rd minor wave (I noted that here). 3rd waves are unmistakable and when they don’t show up I stare intently. A 3rd wave of this degree should have carried us effortlessly to the big orange box above us at a minimum.
Instead, I want to point out where it stalled (green arrow). That thin orange line is the exact point where the rally from 12/20 until now equals the rally from 12/2 to 12/8. That is equal legs. To the tick. And that is exactly how we distinguish between “corrective” and “impulsive” structures. An impulse up here should have some real extension in it. A correction here would have equal legs. Also, the smaller orange box we’re in now is the 50-61.8% retracement of the prior decline. All of this means that my minor (green) 1-2 could be a corrective A-B instead.
Now, if this gets off the mat and rallies really hard, so be it. But until then, it still needs to prove that to me.
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