Presently, I still would like to see a deeper retracement for minute (blue) 4 on $ES.
Backed up a bit, it looks as I’ve depicted in the chart below. One fault with this count is that minute (blue) 4 has now become enormous in terms of time in relation to its corresponding minute (blue) 2 which we can barely even see on the hourly chart. If we do retrace to the orange box, this present wave will be more than four times the length of 2 in time. That is rather extreme.
Now, I’ve chosen a four here because it’s not a great idea to get too aggressively bearish before the market has even tried to drop more than twenty points. But (next chart)…
It is also possible that the whole 5-wave advance is complete. One advantage of this count is the very nice fib relationship between minor (green) C and minor (green) A in price. To the tick 61.8% extension. That’s lovely.
That said, this count is not faultless, as it is difficult to count the sideways chop as a new downtrend (I suppose I would have to try to count it as a leading diagonal or something to that effect).
Regardless, at least in the short-term, I expect lower prices, but if in heading to the orange box, we do more than that, this second count is far more likely.
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