No Retracement on $ES Yet

Unfortunate to not see even a minimum retracement in price for the minute (blue) 4. We’re just a few points below the 12/28 high, so time is running out for the bears. If we breach that high, minute (blue) 4 is in, and perhaps we can make the whole structure a single triangle.

An alternative I can use (that still says a high is right in our midst) since I cannot count minute (blue) 5 in at the 12/28 high (because I cannot count the move since as an impulse wave to the downside) is to view the 4 as in yesterday, with a failed 5th wave in yesterday’s spike near the close (failed in the sense that it failed to make a new high).

I feel like the consensus is much too bullish here—it seems to me that everyone now expects this to be a 4th wave with a 5th wave significantly higher still to come, so turning down abruptly here would take many by surprise—at least so it seems to me.

And my mounting risk signals are not yet improving.


[UPDATE]: With the new high being struck this morning, we may also now look at the 5th wave as ending diagonal like below (this counts particularly well on the cash $SPY chart).


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