$ES Remains in the Range; My Bias Is Still Bearish

This morning’s selloff looked impulsive, and we may count the rest of the structure as an expanded flat for minuette (orange) 2. It retraced deeply to the 78.6% range, still suitable for a two. The expectation is for it to proceed lower to one of the fibs below. The most common extension would take it to the orange box, but given the “look” of the whole thing, I think it would more likely head to one of the lower fibs in order to entirely clear this range we’re in (for the orange 3).

That said, we remain within the range, and bulls will see my minute (blue) c as “1 of c” and my red b as a 2. If we exit the range to the upside, I, too, will have to adopt that count, but with most of the risk signals I look at continuing to not show me a clear risk on environment, I will continue to look down instead of up (until I have to).


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