In favor of this count, I see three things:
- I just watched 700 analysts get supremely bearish
- This is somewhat emotional selling (not necessarily a bad thing, but it can often be reversed)
- The first move after the minutes came out was actually up and that often forecasts the eventual move
So, if we stop falling around here (it’s still ok if it pokes a little below the trend line), keep this possibility open
The alternative is of course the bearish view: namely, that we’re finally impulsing down. On this view, we will want to see a continual move down and to the right, completing a series of fours and fives before getting a relief rally.
Given the strength of the move down, I would think the second count is a bit more likely (but if folks panic here, the first one can also happen).
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