Of course, where did $ES have to stop? Right at one of the trend lines I just pointed out (second chart in this post).
In favor of this count, I see three things:
- I just watched 700 analysts get supremely bearish
- This is somewhat emotional selling (not necessarily a bad thing, but it can often be reversed)
- The first move after the minutes came out was actually up and that often forecasts the eventual move
So, if we stop falling around here (it’s still ok if it pokes a little below the trend line), keep this possibility open
The alternative is of course the bearish view: namely, that we’re finally impulsing down. On this view, we will want to see a continual move down and to the right, completing a series of fours and fives before getting a relief rally.
Given the strength of the move down, I would think the second count is a bit more likely (but if folks panic here, the first one can also happen).
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I like count 1, tag the trendline connecting a and c and start sell of again in 3 wave down until late Jan, statistically late Jan has some pivot lows read somewhere.
It’s definitely possible, and it would be a lot of fun, too 🙂
IVs are quite elevated so I expect a rally soon.
Quite so. We have the ingredients for a short squeeze
Does this recent growth stock sell off invalidate your previous call on some growth stocks?
Yes, i cast doubt on that interpretation in this post: https://dereckstrades.com/2021/12/28/i-am-going-to-adopt-a-more-bearish-tone-heres-why/
I am taking a wait and see approach on those for the moment.