Some points on $BTC:
- Way back when, I saw technical evidence for Bitcoin having potentially topped a top of very great significance. I stuck with that count for a while, and it worked well, culminating in the big spiky drop (e.g., here, and here).
- That said, once we got that far, I felt benefit of the doubt should be returned to the bulls, and I’ve been looking for paths for it to begin moving up again since. And, after all, most of the decline has included a lot of choppy, overlapping waves, symptoms often of corrections rather than trending markets (though of course no guarantee that it’s corrective rather than trending).
- It still may produce a powerful rally, but bulls are quickly losing their window of opportunity, it seems to me.
I will move a chart over from a recent analysis (that analysis may be found here). This pattern at the time looked to be an excellent 3-wave move, but it’s not really behaving like one (yet) at its “end,” as it needs to produce a powerful rally ideally from here. It’s shown no signs of doing so yet. It even lacks sufficient bullish divergence on the RSI to make me believe that one is right around the corner.
And so, it’s important to look at an alternative that moves us back to my “significant top is in” thesis. On this count, I would suppose that intermediate (orange) 1 has completed, and that the two most choppy periods were in fact triangles, the first one a 4th wave, and the second one a B-wave within intermediate (orange) 2. Orange 2 is very shallow for a 2, coming only to the 38.2% retracement. It is shallow, but sufficient. Revenge for bears who only got to see shallow twos on the way up perhaps. Now the bulls may only have been given a shallow 2 on the way down.
Note also, the head and shoulders pattern, and our present relationship with the neckline. The minimum targets for minute (blue) 3 are noted, but given the triple nest, it also may go much lower to clear this range sufficiently.
So, the bullish view requires a strong rally and soon. The bearish view has us right on the cusp of a third of a third of a third down. And so you can see just how crucial this very moment is. If this is going to rally, it needs to do so powerfully and fast. Otherwise it risks the complete opposite, a total collapse that could take it to between 12 and 22 thousand by the time the full first impulse structure is complete.
And I’m afraid equities may largely be in the very same position (e.g., see the precarious point at which the Naz sits, here).
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