Some Guesswork on $SPY

Since we haven’t yet had a reasonable bounce since the selloff began, I would expect that we could get one at any time (so beware of that). However, with Bitcoin looking so weak, the Nasdaq nosing out of its channel, and the $VIX popping its bull flag, it’s also possible that we’re simply still in the middle of a fairly large move. So, I’m guessing a bit here, but skipping various plausible wider counts, let’s just focus on the very local move.

Since we have a gap, and since those are often associated with third waves, let’s just count the move off the high as an impulse wave until we get some structure to deal with. This could mean that Friday was a super-shallow 2 or something to that effect. It’s possible that we’re heading to the lower trend line below us. If we’ve had a 1-2 (orange degree) and are in the third, the expected target for 3 is the orange box below.


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