The thought from yesterday has (at least so far) culminated in a further 80+ point rally in $ES. If we continue to move up sharply, there is good chance that we’re in a significant third wave. That said, I would have expected today to be a “gap and go” day, and while we’ve had the gap, we’re now stalling.
So, that now reopens two additional interpretations.
The bullish view (if we falter here), is that we’ve completed a first 5-wave structure, and will retrace for the orange 2:
The bearish view is that we’ve completed a 3-swing countertrend bounce, as we’re at equal legs now (between orange c and a). This would imply a strong move down coming.
I don’t have enough stuff pointing one way or another for me to be too certain one way or another.
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