A member has requested that we look at $BABA again. The request is a few days old—sorry for that. I have few COVID symptoms left right now, but my energy levels are running between 50% and 75% (on the best days), so I haven’t quite shaken it yet. I feel generally fine, but I’m super tired still. (And if I’ve missed anyone else’s request, remind me because I feel like I forgot to write myself a reminder note on one or two of them).
The long-term view is that it’s either finished a 2 of cycle (yellow) degree, or it’s about halfway done with it (in other words, done with the first large leg of a huge 3-leg correction). In either case, I would expect some kind of multi-month relief rally eventually.
The question then is: is that now? And unfortunately, I really don’t know yet (and this goes for all of the growth stocks that I am looking for bottoms in).
If it has bottomed, it may be in a nest right now, having done a one, and a two, and a one, like this:
On the other hand, all it’s actually given us so far is 3-swings, in which case it may still fall again at some point:
So, on all of these, I’m stuck watching until I see a clear 5-wave pattern emerge.
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