Out of an Abundance of Caution, I Will Maintain a Bearish Bias Until Bitcoin Does This

As pointed out (first here, discussed again here), Bitcoin is in a very precarious configuration and risks a monster selloff. And a liquidity sink of that magnitude could spell disaster for equities.

It continues to count well as a nest of ones and twos, and despite having recaptured its head and shoulders neckline, it has failed to produce a powerful rally that would decidedly negate the uber-bearish count.

So, technical features I want to point out:

  1. Green down trend line. So long as that remains intact, the risk of total failure will remain present.
  2. No rally will convince me that strength has returned until the 250-“2-hour” EMA is breached with gusto (green arrows).

We can top out at any point in here for the minor (green) 2, while failing to breach that EMA and while failing to breach that trend line. Conversely, we can negate all of these negative technical features at the same time as well, as they all converge at the same point near us, should we actually rally.

So, until we see that, I believe it is safer to assume that we are going to fail.


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