I wish I had a clearer conviction about market direction here. And Bitcoin, the great liquidity thermometer, is frustrating the matter. It’s very muddy.
If it would simply rally hard, we could be almost certain that we’re risk on. Or if it would finally collapse already, we could be almost certain that we’re risk off. Knowing this would assist us in adjudicating between the alternative equity counts (here, and here, for instance).
But it just won’t do either. Note its continued position near the head and shoulders neckline (first pointed out here). While it had been below, it’s now recaptured it, but it’s not exactly shooting up yet, either. So, if it does finally rally, bull counts on equities are favored, but if this neckline recapture is a bull trap and we lose it again, bear counts are then favored.
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