I wish I had a clearer conviction about market direction here. And Bitcoin, the great liquidity thermometer, is frustrating the matter. It’s very muddy.
If it would simply rally hard, we could be almost certain that we’re risk on. Or if it would finally collapse already, we could be almost certain that we’re risk off. Knowing this would assist us in adjudicating between the alternative equity counts (here, and here, for instance).
But it just won’t do either. Note its continued position near the head and shoulders neckline (first pointed out here). While it had been below, it’s now recaptured it, but it’s not exactly shooting up yet, either. So, if it does finally rally, bull counts on equities are favored, but if this neckline recapture is a bull trap and we lose it again, bear counts are then favored.
Note: When articles are first posted, most of them are made available only to my Patreon supporters (I do try to publish some public posts on occasion). Over time (usually after a period of a few weeks or so), I make all of the work public. To gain access to my work when it is produced, please consider becoming a patron. More information may be found on my About page and on my Patreon page. In a nutshell, patrons of any denomination (you get to pick the amount) will be able to read my weekend analyses, Tier 1 members ($20/mo.) get access to all of the articles I write, and Tier 2 members ($35/mo.) get access to those, plus counts on other instruments and my Discord chatroom.