I Will Note a Couple of Things

Now, yesterday, based off what i was seeing, I suspected a low was being put in and I expected a rally. And while we’re getting one, it’s not quite as vigorous as I would have expected it to be. Now, if we have a strong close, the bull count will be my favored one. However, if this rally deteriorates, I won’t have much choice other than to label everything as a nest of ones and twos, like this:

ES

A couple of things possibly in support of this are:

1. Bitcoin still hasn’t recaptured its head and shoulders neckline (orange trend line), despite the impressive pop today. If it recaptures it, so be it, but I’ve got to see it to believe it. Until then, it’s merely a backtest from beneath.

BTC

2. Some of you may recall my use of the “aggregate US indices” ticker I referred to recently. Yesterday, it broke down from its parallel, horizontal channel. It’s trying to recapture it today, but if it fails, it would be quite a grave development.

QQQ-SPY-DIA-IWM


Note: When articles are first posted, most of them are made available only to my Patreon supporters (I do try to publish some public posts on occasion). Over time (usually after a period of a few weeks or so), I make all of the work public. To gain access to my work when it is produced, please consider becoming a patron. More information may be found on my About page and on my Patreon page. In a nutshell, patrons of any denomination (you get to pick the amount) will be able to read my weekend analyses, Tier 1 members ($20/mo.) get access to all of the articles I write, and Tier 2 members ($35/mo.) get access to those, plus counts on other instruments and my Discord chatroom.


11 thoughts on “I Will Note a Couple of Things”

  1. Is it possible that the breakdown is the SOW (Sign of weakness) from Wyckhoff theory? Then 5 waves up?

    “…observable as a down-move to (or slightly past) the lower boundary of the TR, usually occurring on increased spread and volume. The AR and the initial SOW(s) indicate a change of character in the price action of the stock: supply is now dominant.”

  2. Yes, but there’s no telling how strong the counter-trend bounce will be. If this is a sign of weakness (and not a “spring” lower before heading up), for all we know, we’re still in that move. It’s very curious. I was sort of expecting a much bigger candle today, and I’m a little worried that we’re not getting it yet.

  3. I noticed you kept the bitcoin analogy/tracking but didnt mention the continued rally in $wti. Can $es dump even if oil holds or do we need a dip there too ? Lastly, love that agg index you show above. Dumb q… Is that something you “made” or is there actually a ticker ?

  4. It would be better to see oil turn lower with equities. If it tops here and starts selling off, that will be good enough. But I wouldn’t expect oil to rally while equities take a big dump.

    The ticker is one I created. In TradingView, one may do so by using the addition symbol in the ticker box at the top left.

  5. DC: i know most of your analysis is for longer term trends etc but i gotta say how perfectly timed this one was. I had covered in am and was watching the rip tempted to jump back in. But was nervous and jealous of all the BTFD’ers. Then this…i immediately shorted big and obviously worked out grt. Spot on and timing was awesome. Thx again and keep up good work.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *