Two More Thoughts on $ES for Today

So, the inverse I pointed out yesterday has not yet popped, but, it’s also not yet failed, either. It attempted to recapture the neckline today (green arrow) and then sold off. That’s not fatal, as the little bull trap might only be temporary. We may simply be developing a larger, more complex “right shoulder.” If this structure does play out, it will help to confirm the bullish count, because, in order to get the full measured move, we will also get the extension we would expect for a wave 3.


However, we also must be mindful of this potential as well. If we do get another rally as expected, but do not explode up, we risk reaching merely “equal legs” between yesterday’s rally and the rally we are in now. And if we only get equal legs, there is an increased risk of forming a giant bear flag (and the measured move of a flag like this here would produce a target of [checks notes] 3955).


And so, we really do want to see this market get pretty well over 4500 to gain confidence in a major low.

Note: When articles are first published, most of them are made available only to my Patreon supporters (I do try to publish some public posts on occasion). Over time (usually after a period of a few weeks or so), I make all of the work public. To gain access to my work when it is produced (or to join my Discord chatroom), please consider becoming a patron. Note that there is a 7-day free trial period. More information may be found on my About page and on my Patreon page.

2 thoughts on “Two More Thoughts on $ES for Today”

  1. Dereck, any lessons from commodities like copper which have completely ignored this equity tantrum? One would think VIX@30 would show up somewhere on copper chart 🤔

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *