Member Request: An Update on $GOLD

A member has requested a look at gold, and so let’s do that here.

My last discussion of gold was in this post, and despite that being in an article exploring the possibility of deflation, whereas now I am more firmly inclined to believe we may reflate for a considerably longer period of time, the count I suggested in that prior article still looks good to me, and in past market melt ups, gold does not necessarily do very well. The instrument moves so slowly that there is no essential update from the prior count I proposed, though I have had to move a couple of trend lines.

I believe public speculation in the metals is at near all-time highs (suggested in part by the high premiums we are seeing over spot for physical). So long as the prior two highs hold (green arrows), I continue to lean to the view that this will eventually fail somewhat dramatically.


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