In line with my last post about the remaining uncertainty in the markets, I will provide some comments on Bitcoin here.
- Unlike equities, which made a lower low from late January to late February, Bitcoin has made a higher low (red arrows). I take that to a positive sign given its ability to serve as a measure of liquidity.
- That said, though today’s rally has the appearance of the 3rd wave I have been expecting—nice and powerful (that’s the minute [blue] 3 we’re at now), 3 waves isn’t enough, and we will need to see a 4 and then a 5 (of the blue degree).
- In doing that, we will also finally overcome the head and shoulders neckline I have referred to many times over much of this year (the orange line) and it will also take out the February high (orange arrow). All of that would be very bullish.
- If we do that, then I would be fairly confidently bullish at that point, market wide, on everything (maybe not Rubles).
- But until we do, I will remain cautious as a failure here would be quite bearish. For instance, you can see that by not making lower lows between January and February (which has given equities a bullish wedge), we can probably draw a fairly significant bear flag on here if we wanted to.
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