And in Order to Not Be Too Cocky, Here’s the Bear Look on $SPY

It’s been prudent to have been looking up from the Bloody Monday low, but now that many of those predictions have come to fruition, let’s at least look at the bearish case for a moment. If we’re actually in an even more major correction, it would look about like this, with the Bloody Monday low being an A-wave, and the rally since a B-wave. And we would expect a C-wave to follow. I think this is unlikely given the persistence of the bearish sentiment here, but just know that if they’re going to rug us, the orange box is about where they would do it from.

To invalidate this, we want to stay “up here,” for a bit, consolidating “up here,” and then going on to make yet another high. That will ensure that we have a respectable 5-wave move off the low (instead of only 3-waves). So long as we remain above the January 26th high, this look remains improbable, in my opinion. But just know that until we actually do get a 5-wave move off the low, it is at least possible.


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