I continue to expect the uptrend to continue. My initial expectation for today was to see this latest “2” complete, and for us to begin to rally. However, with the selloff into the close, that appears to be delayed. And so, this may now be the two. Unless we begin to take out prior lows, this will continue to be my expectation.
It is promising that the three last advances all have the appearance of motive waves (green arrows) and the pullbacks between them all look corrective. That should indicate to us that the trend is up, despite its taking its sweet time to accelerate to the upside.
The move on Bitcoin looks promising to me (as a reflection of market liquidity). The orange line is the head and shoulders neckline discussed in the past. It never did give us the full measured move down from that structure’s breakdown (well into the 20K region)—one reason I did not get too bearish during the January drop, and the rally off its low, despite forming something of a bear flag (green parallel rails), is beginning to break up from that structure and it may recapture the neckline altogether here. And of course, it’s also broken up through its down trend line as well (the long green line).
The advance/decline ratio did something interesting recently, technically speaking. I often watch its 10-day EMA as a way to remove the “noise” from the candles and it’s broken the long-standing divergence it’s had for months and months. This should be a very bullish signal, though using this to time market movements is unhelpful. But rather, it suggests to me that a serious bottom did, in fact, form at the 1/24 low.
And finally, it would be helpful to see another strong DIX print tonight, so let’s see what comes out of that.
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