Some S&P 500 Speculations

Just a couple of thoughts to explore possibilities here that I think are plausible.


1) We don’t rocket ship out of here. We string things along, develop a topping pattern (H&S), even begin to break down from it, then squeeze like mad. This would create a second Wyckoff pattern of accumulation (one at the lows, another, larger one, here).

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This is modeled on the rally out of the COVID crash lows. In both cases, we saw record statistics such as in regard to sentiment, put buying, volume, etc. So they are similar.

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2) We deny the ideal entry of a retest of the down trend line; no pullbacks, the orange 2 is micro in size, everyone is forced to chase into rapidly rising prices while in disbelief.

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This is modeled on the October low. They are similar in “look,” each with a similar “funky bottom” from which everyone expected new lows. They both had an exhausting blue wave 2 and similar downtrend lines.

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It all depends on whether institutions need to accumulate more prior to the strong markup or not, and I don’t know any I can call on the phone and ask.


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One thought on “Some S&P 500 Speculations”

  1. Another factor is bearish seasonality in last two weeks of Feb plus mopex next Friday.

    Imo, a straight line meltup is least likely

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