The S&P 500 Pain Trade

This is speculative, but I like the thought, so will share it with you. Sometimes I try to think of a market motion that will piss everyone off and this is what I’ve come up with lol.

  • Bulls want minor (green) 2 to already be in (at my minute [blue] “a”) so that the market can go up from here.
  • Bears want minute (blue) “b” to already be in (at the highs just above us) so that the market can go down from here.

On this count below, bulls will think they are right as we move to blue b, then get burned when we go down to blue c, but they may be ultimately right if that is, in fact, minor (green) 2 down there.

And on this count, bears will get their eyes poked out for a moment, but will also eventually be right because there could be another flush lower (but from higher levels—and heaven save us all if that green 2 is actually above us, not below us, but one thing at a time).

It’s just a guess; it’s just me trying to think what would be mean. Any super strong rally or drop from here can easily invalidate this, but I like this at least for the time being.

ES


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