And Now Let’s Look at the Bullish Case, Too

This morning, I wrote about the danger of consensus. And since so many folks are expecting 4000 (bears expect to cover there; bulls expect to buy there), all that concerted buying may simply be absorbed by someone actually wanting out. But the alternative is, of course, that we never actually even get there in the first place.

The little green bear wedge we’re in now is still decidedly a bearish structure, however, they can, on some occasions, also be bullish structures. It is preferable to see 3-wave corrections, so corrective bear wedges and bear flags normally only have “two peaks.” But you can see that this now has “three peaks.” And so though it absolutely could still be corrective, it now also opens the possibility for it so be an impulsive wave (which are 5-wave structures, with “three peaks”).

So, until we actually see 4000, it is possible that this is a nest of ones and twos, first of intermediate (orange) then of minor (green) degrees.

If this wedge breaks down, perhaps everyone will see it and lean into shorts, and that’s also about where I would expect the green 2 to end, perhaps another retest of the channel we’re in.

It would have been better to break down overnight. So, just alerting you to all of the possibilities as I see them here. I will carry this possibility as an alt now on the S&P counts page.

ES


Note: When articles are first posted, most of them are made available only to my Patreon supporters (I do try to publish some public posts on occasion). Over time (usually after a period of a few weeks or so), I make all of the work public. To gain access to my work when it is produced, please consider becoming a patron. More information may be found on my About page and on my Patreon page. In a nutshell, patrons of any denomination (you get to pick the amount) will be able to read my weekend analyses, Tier 1 members ($20/mo.) get access to all of the articles I write, and Tier 2 members ($35/mo.) get access to those, plus counts on other instruments and my Discord chatroom.


Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *