Both of my present counts remain possible after today’s price action. I can see us either dropping more from here, or rallying, though I continue to favor more downside.
However, I am always on the hunt for something we’re not all expecting, and basically everyone is now expecting effectively either of my two main counts, as they both of course make the most sense here. Maybe we need something more surprising, and my evil imagination has just the plan.
So, recall that the Russell has been in a nice triangle of its own, and it’s now exiting that to the downside (here’s a peek at what that looks like now). The Russell tends to lead, and so it could make sense that it’s leaving a triangle and we don’t even yet realize that we’re in one now on the S&P. So, here’s what one could look like here.
- I’ve left my bullish wedge (red structure) drawn on here, and that’s the magic behind the evil of this count
- Focus on the green structure, the actual triangle (for primary [pink] B)
- Apple just hit its 250-day EMA on the nose, and it’s very unlikely that it can cut right through that like it’s not even there
- Thus, Apple is very likely to bounce here
- Thus, if Apple is likely to bounce here, the S&P 500 is likely to bounce here
- So, let’s say we bounce, hell, let’s say even a little hard, that’s going to spook the bears and bring the bulls back to the table
- And if we poke out of this bull wedge, what is that going to look exactly like?
- It’s going to look like a textbook bullish wedge breakout, backtest, boom, everyone piles in on the move to orange E
- Then the rug pull comes
Just a thought I think is possible here, and you can see the logic of it here: too many people (including me) are expecting a move down now-ish, and that’s why we might not get it, yet. And so I’ve come up with this thought because I like to try to anticipate the patterns that have the potential to harm the most number of people and to press that to my own advantage. And this is the best I could come up with for now.
(Another reason I’m considering it here is also that I sort of expected us to move lower faster here, and we’re not, which means the bearish count I’ve been carrying might be wrong and I need another one, and this is it).
I will carry this as an alt for a little while.
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