My last post on $DASH was here, in which I was looking for a major turn lower. Now, we got that and then much, much more. And so much more in fact that that count is no longer suitable. Reassessing the situation from here is something I do not find terribly easy to do at the moment. I will walk through a few things.
In the broadest possible view, the structure looks like a 3-swing move. We went down, we went up, then we went down. And so we can conclude that it’s a corrective structure, and so let’s label it as an A-B-C:
One immediate issue I see by doing this is that orange “C” should be a 5-wave move. And it’s actually kind of difficult to count it that way internally. In a basic way, from the November ’21 high, we can see that we’ve moved materially lower 3 distinct times, and so we may presume that it’s some kind of 5-wave move, like this:
But when trying to count those motions internally, I keep coming up short on some waves and long on others (some don’t have enough internal waves, others have too many). So, hmm.
One solution to that is to accept these green structures below (pointed to by the green arrows) as triangles:
But that introduces a new interpretive problem. A series of 3-wave internal structures is not what we would expect in a “C” wave (of the orange degree). So double hmm.
So, on the basis of that, it may be the case that we’re in a much larger correction that we cannot yet see. In which case, perhaps orange B isn’t even in yet, like this:
This counts far better from the November high down but also involves quite a bit of speculation. Also note that I’ve stuck orange B and C on here so they will fit on the same chart, but I would expect them to be much further out in time than where I’ve placed them arbitrarily for the moment (the point is: at some point we should go up again, and then down again somewhere).
I sort of like this look, and it may agree with the thought expressed this morning that the indices may need to make another low soon.
Now, if I’m wrong and this keeps shooting up now then minute (blue) “b” is the beginning of a new impulse wave. And what we would want to do is wait and let it finish. If it’s actually a wave “1” of some degree, it will have a “2” at some point and that’s a better place to get an entry because it will probably give a lot of the present rally back anyways.
So, there’s a lot of guessing on this one, but that’s the hardship we face in large corrective structures especially on newer tickers that don’t have a long history. We will have to see what this looks like again after a couple more weeks.
For the time being:
- If this rally fails now, it may be a tradable low, worthy of a swing long position
- If it continues to rally, I would wait for that rally to exhaust itself and buy a pullback when it comes back at least 50-61.8% of the advance
I will try to keep an eye on this one, as regardless of how it plays out, I think there will be some excellent trading opportunities presented to us over the next year or more.
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