Brief Update on the S&P 500

I continue to believe that the S&P 500 is continuing to develop the large structure I have pointed out before in previous articles (for instance, here). In line with that, I believe we are in a nest of ones and twos. Presently, I am looking for subminuette (orange) 2 to complete at any time. That is to say: I believe this is a counter trend rally that could fail at any moment. However, if—big if—it squeezes a bit higher, we can view $SPY as being in a bull flag beneath the COVID crash channel:


If we do squeeze higher, we can view the coincidence of these two structures as a target (I’ve circled where they meet on the chart above). We may threaten to break out of the bull flag (creating a bull trap) while at the time we can retest the channel (that, so far as I have been able to determine, no one but me is watching right now). Bear in mind that, as I believe the next move down will be a doozy, I can’t guarantee that we will go up there, but if we do, we can explain it with these technicals.

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