Throwing the Bears a Bone

Ok, so early April I had been looking lower, and we got that. Then late last week, I lost faith in that, and started looking for a rally, and so far, we’ve gotten that, too.

I’m sorry to keep twisting and turning like this, but we’re not in a trending market, and until we enter one, it’s what I have to do.

Now, the bull case here is that primary (pink) C is in and we should continue heading toward all-time highs, perhaps more or less in a straight line:


However, since we’re moving up now but have not yet had a super extended move indicating a really good impulse wave up yet, it’s now also possible that the count is different, and primary (pink) C is still below us. It can be a 3-wave move, and perhaps the move down in early April is intermediate (orange) A, this bounce is B and we’re setting up for a big drop. Add to that. we’re at the 50-61.8% retracement of the drop (orange box):


So, I wish I could know better which one will play out, but both seem possible here. I think the key is going to be 4500. If we find support on it, we’re likely to go up; if it becomes overhead resistance, we can make another move lower.

Note: When my work is first published on this website, it is made available to patrons who support my work through my Patreon account. Over time (usually after a period of a few months), I make the work public. To gain access to my work when it is produced, please consider becoming a patron. More information may be found on my About page and on my Patreon page.

2 thoughts on “Throwing the Bears a Bone”

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.