Throwing the Bears a Bone

Ok, so early April I had been looking lower, and we got that. Then late last week, I lost faith in that, and started looking for a rally, and so far, we’ve gotten that, too.

I’m sorry to keep twisting and turning like this, but we’re not in a trending market, and until we enter one, it’s what I have to do.

Now, the bull case here is that primary (pink) C is in and we should continue heading toward all-time highs, perhaps more or less in a straight line:

ES

However, since we’re moving up now but have not yet had a super extended move indicating a really good impulse wave up yet, it’s now also possible that the count is different, and primary (pink) C is still below us. It can be a 3-wave move, and perhaps the move down in early April is intermediate (orange) A, this bounce is B and we’re setting up for a big drop. Add to that. we’re at the 50-61.8% retracement of the drop (orange box):

ES

So, I wish I could know better which one will play out, but both seem possible here. I think the key is going to be 4500. If we find support on it, we’re likely to go up; if it becomes overhead resistance, we can make another move lower.


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