Earlier, I pointed out a fib level at which I expected at least a reaction. None whatsoever came. Impressive. I will make another observation now.
I became frustrated by the bear wedge hypothesis because we never saw any acceleration lower. Well goodness gracious. We certainly have that now. So what to do? As it turns out, cash $SPY has come to the bear wedge in a single, unrelenting breath. Amazing.
Even if I had remained committed to the bear wedge thesis, I would not have expected it to get here in the form that it has (no obvious internal waves outside of the 1-minute chart).
As with the doomed fib call from earlier, I would also expect a reaction here, too.
I will make a note of caution: the last time we had such unrelenting selling (in January) on a Friday did lead to the famous “margin call Monday” at which point we had a huge gap down followed by the intraday reversal on 1/24.
I have no idea if that will happen here, but that was a Fri/Mon relationship, too, so I thought I would point it out.
It’s unusual for the market to move so strongly in a straight line like this, and I will have to continue to expect a bounce at some point.
Note: When articles are first posted, most of them are made available only to my Patreon supporters (I do try to publish some public posts on occasion). Over time (usually after a period of a few weeks or so), I make all of the work public. To gain access to my work when it is produced, please consider becoming a patron. More information may be found on my About page and on my Patreon page. In a nutshell, patrons of any denomination (you get to pick the amount) will be able to read my weekend analyses, Tier 1 members ($20/mo.) get access to all of the articles I write, and Tier 2 members ($35/mo.) get access to those, plus counts on other instruments and my Discord chatroom.