A Couple More Intraday Thoughts For $ES

Consumer confidence report was a disappointment, and we’re not seeing any strength as a result.

So long as we remain above yesterday’s low, it’s still possible to count this as a 1-2, but it’s now very deep for a 2, and is a bit less likely as a result (though we cannot yet rule it out).

To get a clean “3rd” wave up, we need to get way up to the orange box above. However, if we do rally, and only get to the parallel rail (orange circle), we risk forming a bear flag hear, which would suggest that the consensus view (that we’re going lower) is correct. I do find that a bit remarkable, as my best trades are often fading obvious consensus views. And it’s clear to me here that most analysts believe we’re going lower. That said, price is price and it’s going to do what it’s going to do.


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