I continue to remain skeptical of what I believe is the consensus here. That said, $ES has made little overnight progress and has gotten tied up at these trend lines (green), instead of outright recapturing them.
If we fail to begin moving up sharply, we may go to the lower bull wedge trend line (red). That’s disappointing because that’s then a mere 100 points from everyone’s primary target, and so it would mean they’ve sort of been right all along.
I’m not quite sure how I would need to interpret that, as the majority is necessarily wrong. Could it mean that everyone is hoping to buy that level and they’ll be wrong about that, i.e., that that level will actually not be a bottom but rather a top? That’s a scary thought. But, I have to at least be open to it, because we keep falling, and if we’re falling, it’s because not enough people are short.
The $VIX, last discussed here, is perched on its upper fan line, and needs to break down. Finding support here is ominous.
$DXY, last discussed here, has broken above the trend line discussed in the last post on it. One or two days up here is okay, but persisting above this is very ominous.
Poll after poll shows excessive bearishness. If everyone thinks we’re in a bear market, and the market keeps failing, what can that mean? Are they just saying that in the polls, but not positioning for it? Do they not really believe it? It’s hard for me to make sense of the clear disparity.
At any rate, I hope we begin to rally soon, I expect us to, but we certainly need to see it to believe it. We need a good $VIX and $DXY reversal, and a sustained bid on equities. I’d like to see a “gap and go” up, a good bear trap.
NPD has been stubbornly close to 0 but made a new (recent) low today at -5.73. This means puts were bot yesterday, as I suspected. A negative 10 NPD print would signal enough support for a solid rally, and perhaps we need to dump a couple more times to get there.