Quick Morning Notes

I continue to remain skeptical of what I believe is the consensus here. That said, $ES has made little overnight progress and has gotten tied up at these trend lines (green), instead of outright recapturing them.

If we fail to begin moving up sharply, we may go to the lower bull wedge trend line (red). That’s disappointing because that’s then a mere 100 points from everyone’s primary target, and so it would mean they’ve sort of been right all along.

I’m not quite sure how I would need to interpret that, as the majority is necessarily wrong. Could it mean that everyone is hoping to buy that level and they’ll be wrong about that, i.e., that that level will actually not be a bottom but rather a top? That’s a scary thought. But, I have to at least be open to it, because we keep falling, and if we’re falling, it’s because not enough people are short.

ES

The $VIX, last discussed here, is perched on its upper fan line, and needs to break down. Finding support here is ominous.

VIX

$DXY, last discussed here, has broken above the trend line discussed in the last post on it. One or two days up here is okay, but persisting above this is very ominous.

DXY

Poll after poll shows excessive bearishness. If everyone thinks we’re in a bear market, and the market keeps failing, what can that mean? Are they just saying that in the polls, but not positioning for it? Do they not really believe it? It’s hard for me to make sense of the clear disparity.

At any rate, I hope we begin to rally soon, I expect us to, but we certainly need to see it to believe it. We need a good $VIX and $DXY reversal, and a sustained bid on equities. I’d like to see a “gap and go” up, a good bear trap.


Note: When articles are first posted, most of them are made available only to my Patreon supporters (I do try to publish some public posts on occasion). Over time (usually after a period of a few weeks or so), I make all of the work public. To gain access to my work when it is produced, please consider becoming a patron. More information may be found on my About page and on my Patreon page. In a nutshell, patrons of any denomination (you get to pick the amount) will be able to read my weekend analyses, Tier 1 members ($20/mo.) get access to all of the articles I write, and Tier 2 members ($35/mo.) get access to those, plus counts on other instruments and my Discord chatroom.


One thought on “Quick Morning Notes”

  1. NPD has been stubbornly close to 0 but made a new (recent) low today at -5.73. This means puts were bot yesterday, as I suspected. A negative 10 NPD print would signal enough support for a solid rally, and perhaps we need to dump a couple more times to get there.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *