And One More Long-Term Option Available To Us

In addition to the long-term structure discussed here, there is another that I will also consider. It is also possible that we have been in a very large broadening pattern. There is a sense in which this may be my favorite alternative because I think very few would see it.

On this interpretation, we may continue to rally to the “bull flag upper rail” (the middle green trend line) and then congest for a bit. I like this because it seems to me that the vast majority of people do believe this rally we’re in now will fail. And I hate that. I would hate for them all to be right—as many of them were about us getting to 4000 or less.

So, on this count, it’s just a huge, stupid structure intent on tiring everybody forever and ever. At that orange A-B junction, that’s when I think most people will be inclined to believe the rally will fail, and it would be best—I think—for the market to go and do what few would expect, namely, to gallop suddenly to all-time highs. And in that move, of course everyone will will be celebrating the looming “melt-up” to 6000+, only for us to then actually have a real crash that everyone is now expecting (for the “E-Wave”).

The bears who want this rally we’re in now to fail, want it to fail because they want to see the capitulation low (we haven’t seen that on the VIX yet, for instance). This would give it to them, but only much later (down at that yellow b).

So I like this one the best. I think it would be the least expected.

SPY


Note: When articles are first posted, most of them are made available only to my Patreon supporters (I do try to publish some public posts on occasion). Over time (usually after a period of a few months), I make all of the work public. To gain access to my work when it is produced, please consider becoming a patron. More information may be found on my About page and on my Patreon page. In a nutshell, Tier 1 members ($20/mo.) get access to the articles, Tier 2 members ($35/mo.) get access to those, plus counts on about 20 other instruments, plus Discord server access.


A Macro Structure Speculation on $SPY

I want to believe the lows are in because of the supremely bearish sentiment. The bears are—in my opinion—dangerously overconfident.

The dark thought from earlier (here, here and here) has us going fairly low, and I would hate for that overconfidence to be so rewarded.

I have an alternative that may solve some of this.

Looking at the big picture, I am generally persuaded that the advance off the COVID crash low may not be an impulse wave. I have discussed some of the reasons why before, but, let’s grant that thought as an exercise.

If it’s a “B-Wave,” then COVID crash may have been an “A-Wave,” which means we should be in a “C-Wave” now, like this:

SPY

Read more “A Macro Structure Speculation on $SPY”


Note: When articles are first posted, most of them are made available only to my Patreon supporters (I do try to publish some public posts on occasion). Over time (usually after a period of a few months), I make all of the work public. To gain access to my work when it is produced, please consider becoming a patron. More information may be found on my About page and on my Patreon page. In a nutshell, Tier 1 members ($20/mo.) get access to the articles, Tier 2 members ($35/mo.) get access to those, plus counts on about 20 other instruments, plus Discord server access.


Adding Some Speculative Targets to the Last Post

If the market is covertly bearish here, I would expect something roughly like this.

I would expect this choppy move down we’re in now (since 5/30 high) to be a leading diagonal of minuette (orange) degree. We would see a bounce that fails with some drama for the orange 3 of blue 1 in the coming days. Then I would expect some consolidation for the orange 4, a lower low for orange 5, and then some kind of bounce for blue 2. The orange box below is where some of this may occur as it’s an area of prior consolidation and the 50-61.8% retracement area of the advance off the 5.20 low.

After that, if the move still looks right, we may fail in an even larger degree (blue) 3 below 3700 before consolidating again in the blue 4 down there, etc. This speculation implies that minor (green) C will equal minor (green) A, but there are other fibs that would work as well.

ES

A powerful rally taking us well over 4300 (the 5/5 high) will call this into question. If that happens, I will still be inclined to the view that we need to go to the bull flag upper rail.

That may still happen, but this rally has stalled in a weird way, and at a weird place, and so I’ve got to keep my eyes ears open to this alternative.


Note: When articles are first posted, most of them are made available only to my Patreon supporters (I do try to publish some public posts on occasion). Over time (usually after a period of a few months), I make all of the work public. To gain access to my work when it is produced, please consider becoming a patron. More information may be found on my About page and on my Patreon page. In a nutshell, Tier 1 members ($20/mo.) get access to the articles, Tier 2 members ($35/mo.) get access to those, plus counts on about 20 other instruments, plus Discord server access.


Some Morning Thoughts on $ES

In order for the ultra-bullish count to work, my expectation was for further upside in the short-term.

We’re not really seeing that just yet.

As it stands as I type this, we will open below Friday’s close. That throws a bit of a wrench into the very bullish count, as I would still expect a good gap somewhere in here.

The advance from the 5/20 low now looks a bit odd. If we’re in an impulse up, we should be consolidating and moving up, but the drop now from the 5/30 high is about 80 points and it feels like a new structure may be forming. It’s sort of a big pullback for us being in this stage of the super-bull nest. While I won’t throw that out just yet, I will add this cautionary note.

Back in my “Dark Thought” post, I pointed out a way to count this whole scooping bottom as a “B-Wave.” And if you look at the last example in that article, the fact that we haven’t continued to go higher just now leaves that on the table, as we’ve now ended up only coming to that “expanded” triangle’s trend line, like this:

ES

I’m not predicting this per se. But until we continue to move up, it’s back on the table as a thought.


Note: When articles are first posted, most of them are made available only to my Patreon supporters (I do try to publish some public posts on occasion). Over time (usually after a period of a few months), I make all of the work public. To gain access to my work when it is produced, please consider becoming a patron. More information may be found on my About page and on my Patreon page. In a nutshell, Tier 1 members ($20/mo.) get access to the articles, Tier 2 members ($35/mo.) get access to those, plus counts on about 20 other instruments, plus Discord server access.


Now We Cookin’

My expectations yesterday that we may only just be entering the heart of the move still look promising today. I was hoping to see a gap and go, and we sort of got that, but it’s not yet quite the kind of gap I want to see to announce the 3rd of the 3rd.

And so, it possible that today was yet another 1 and 2 (of subminuette [red] degree):

SPY

Read more “Now We Cookin’”


Note: When articles are first posted, most of them are made available only to my Patreon supporters (I do try to publish some public posts on occasion). Over time (usually after a period of a few months), I make all of the work public. To gain access to my work when it is produced, please consider becoming a patron. More information may be found on my About page and on my Patreon page. In a nutshell, Tier 1 members ($20/mo.) get access to the articles, Tier 2 members ($35/mo.) get access to those, plus counts on about 20 other instruments, plus Discord server access.


So Far, So Good (Famous Last Words)

We have broken out of the bullish wedge with some conviction, and I like that. So far, we have only a 3-wave advance, which means some risk still remains, but all 5-wave structures must, by necessity, begin as 3-wave structures.

I see a lot of chatter about not trusting the rally, and I like that, too (I’m scared, myself, lol).

I am going to count this very aggressively for the the time being. The irony here is that after not being bearish enough on the way down, I now run the risk of not being bullish enough on the way up once we finally get what I’ve been calling for. And so, one way I can try to offset that is with a very aggressive count.

We don’t yet have the kind of gap I like to see in a 3rd of 3rd, which inclines me to believe that that still lies ahead of us. To do that, we can count today as a 1-2 of a lower degree (I have it in orange). If we get a big gap and go, that will help this count immensely.

SPY

There is a good chance—I think—of us heading straight to, and possibly even straight through, the bull flag upper rail with few pullbacks.


Note: When articles are first posted, most of them are made available only to my Patreon supporters (I do try to publish some public posts on occasion). Over time (usually after a period of a few months), I make all of the work public. To gain access to my work when it is produced, please consider becoming a patron. More information may be found on my About page and on my Patreon page. In a nutshell, Tier 1 members ($20/mo.) get access to the articles, Tier 2 members ($35/mo.) get access to those, plus counts on about 20 other instruments, plus Discord server access.


Post FOMC Note

One of the reasons for my venting my frustration earlier was the price action I’ve pointed to with the orange arrow. If the “2” was where I have “A” now, we should not have produced that sloppy, overlapping mess. And being honest about that made me look for darker alternatives.

However, adjusting the wedge a bit (on cash), this looks cleaner, like a better breakout, backtest and go. And it is possible to label the choopy part as the “B-Wave” of the “2.” And “B-Waves” are almost always messy.

So, if we get followthrough, I will be satisfied that the bullish view may have some real legs.

If we’re in a 3rd wave, we should start seeing some gaps (could be one, could be more), and I would like to see us head to the orange box at a minimum, and stay up there.

SPY


Note: When articles are first posted, most of them are made available only to my Patreon supporters (I do try to publish some public posts on occasion). Over time (usually after a period of a few months), I make all of the work public. To gain access to my work when it is produced, please consider becoming a patron. More information may be found on my About page and on my Patreon page. In a nutshell, Tier 1 members ($20/mo.) get access to the articles, Tier 2 members ($35/mo.) get access to those, plus counts on about 20 other instruments, plus Discord server access.


Target Possibilities for Various Alternatives Available to Us

There’s a lot up for grabs still and I have presented many variations that I can see, so I will summarize them here.

1. Preferred: “Low Is In”

If this is the case, we should begin moving up with vigor to the orange box or even much higher. We should be entering a 3rd wave (of some degree). Orange 3 can even be much higher, and we may only be entering “1” of that “3,” but in any case, we should to or above the orange box and not look back.

ES

Read more “Target Possibilities for Various Alternatives Available to Us”


Note: When articles are first posted, most of them are made available only to my Patreon supporters (I do try to publish some public posts on occasion). Over time (usually after a period of a few months), I make all of the work public. To gain access to my work when it is produced, please consider becoming a patron. More information may be found on my About page and on my Patreon page. In a nutshell, Tier 1 members ($20/mo.) get access to the articles, Tier 2 members ($35/mo.) get access to those, plus counts on about 20 other instruments, plus Discord server access.


Allow Me One Dark Thought

Given what seems to me to be a broad consensus that we’re heading lower, among many other factors, I would prefer to see a major low be put in. However, if that low is in, we should begin moving up with vigor. We’re not yet. We might soon. FOMC can be a terrific catalyst. But it can also be a terrific fakeout.

So, in the spirit of looking both ways while I cross the road here, let’s look at something dark.

From the 5/22 low, we’re moving up, but so far it’s been lethargic. If all the bad money has been flushed, new, fresh, invigorated buyers should step in at what they know are great prices. Instead, we’re moving up sloppily (so far).

Looking at the structure, it’s possible that we’re making yet another triangle (the last of which I warned about recently here).

If we take out the upper trend line with great conviction and enthusiasm, terrific. But if that level (a little over 4000 remains as resistance—or if we can’t even bother to get up there), it’s possible that we just keep falling. Perhaps just too damned many people are looking for a rally, I don’t know.

ES

Read more “Allow Me One Dark Thought”


Note: When articles are first posted, most of them are made available only to my Patreon supporters (I do try to publish some public posts on occasion). Over time (usually after a period of a few months), I make all of the work public. To gain access to my work when it is produced, please consider becoming a patron. More information may be found on my About page and on my Patreon page. In a nutshell, Tier 1 members ($20/mo.) get access to the articles, Tier 2 members ($35/mo.) get access to those, plus counts on about 20 other instruments, plus Discord server access.


Let Me Add One Thought to the Last Post

Let me add one thought to further explain just how unpredictable it is here. In the last post, I said that “if we fail to get the big rally, I would begin to suspect that the 5th…wave is itself the ending diagonal, indicating that we may have one more lower low to make.” Why wouldn’t I be certain? I want to be clear about that. If we fail to rally, it won’t automatically also mean that we have to break to new lows, because there are many alternatives, which makes this spot very difficult.

For instance, it’s also simply possible that orange “2” is just very large, like this:

ES

So, in other words, failing to break out right away won’t—to my mind—automatically also mean that we’re going to plunge to 3700, either. It’s possible that we do, but it’s certainly not a given.


Note: When articles are first posted, most of them are made available only to my Patreon supporters (I do try to publish some public posts on occasion). Over time (usually after a period of a few months), I make all of the work public. To gain access to my work when it is produced, please consider becoming a patron. More information may be found on my About page and on my Patreon page. In a nutshell, Tier 1 members ($20/mo.) get access to the articles, Tier 2 members ($35/mo.) get access to those, plus counts on about 20 other instruments, plus Discord server access.