I must grant, it’s certainly still possible that we move lower, but: just backing out for a second and ignoring all noise: if I knew nothing about the Fed, nothing about inflation, sentiment, throw it all out, and if someone were to show me this chart, I would be pretty hopeful:
Especially if that weekly candle stays about where it is or gets better. It’s a good hammer on the weekly (so far) and we’ll have at least 6 million contracts in by today’s close, and more to come this week, meaning the final volume should be pretty comparable to the last two. So: if we don’t fail, it looks bullish to me. Furthermore, that’s six red weeklies in a row. My eyes started to cross, so I might have missed one, but as far as I can tell, you have to go back to 2002 to see six red consecutive candles. Very rare. That alone gives us a decent chance of this candle turning green by week’s end.
Similarly on Bitcoin, it’s a good candle if it doesn’t fail, it’s a bullish structure, and we’re seeing the most volume we’ve seen since other pivot lows. If this structure holds, I think it looks good. And this is creating seven weekly red candles. I can see six consecutive candles at one point in 2014, but, unless I missed it, I think this has never happened before. So, there is a very good chance that this candle closes the week green, too. Unless we’re literally doomed here and the “everything bubble” as folks like to call it has actually popped. But I’m not going to bet on that just yet.