Green Shoots?

So, I’m just going to rattle off some things I see today in a list. They may be promising signs, but there’s still no telling for sure yet as we remain deep down in this lower range and it will be better if we start moving up, which we haven’t really done much of yet.


Bitcoin, as discussed late last night just before I went to bed to enjoy my sleepless nightmares, did, in fact, have a strong reaction to that fib, up now about 11% after touching it and briefly piercing it:

BTC

It has recaptured the lower rail of the green wedge (which you can see more clearly above), and also has created an inverse head and shoulders pattern that could carry it to over $34K if it plays out:

BTC

And finally, the daily hammer candle on high volume is a real beauty. We need another bullish candle next to it, but this one is exactly what you can see at a capitulation low, especially on crypto (US indices don’t often have the highest volume on the lowest day):

BTC

If there is a trend change in crypto here, then there is a trend change in liquidity altogether here, too. Equities are not going to crash with crypto moving up. If there is an urgent need for dollars, crypto goes.


Similarly, the massive long-legged doji candle on huge volume may signify a capitulation low on Apple:

AAPL


I have already pointed out the large, falling wedge on $SPY today, and all of the major indices have, on a smaller timeframe, built inverses like this, that could send us higher:

ES


CNN’s Fear and Greed Index is at crash bottom lows:

FEAR & GREED

And the AAII sentiment survey continues to show elevated bears and subdued bulls (though it is beginning to improve):

AAII


$RTY is sandwiched between these two important prior highs, but has not lost these two important prior highs:

RTY

And it won’t take much to regain them both from here.


Equity put-to-call ratio opened very high today (1.36!—rare!), and importantly, ground higher after its initial drop that coincided with the morning rally, meaning people were willing to sell even this small rally today:

PCCE


The UK $FTSE tends to lead US Indices. It did not make a higher high pre-COVID, and bottomed a week before the S&P (the 16th of March there vs. the 23rd here). It remains well-elevated now and has not even managed to take out its March low. It also may have completed a first, full impulse wave (a 1-2) up here as the decline from 4/11 is only in 3-waves (so far):

FTSE


Lots and lots and lots of stocks made 5-waves up today, here is a small sampling:

$FB, clear impulse wave:

FB

$AMZN, 5 up, 3 back:

AMZN

There are many others. It’s a promising start. Now, we need the full caboodle, the whole larger 5-waves of which these could be “firsts,” otherwise we risk, like the S&P futures last night, the impulse waves being only a leg of further correction. But if we get more upside, these will look fantastic.


$MSFT, which violated my bullish wedge (red structure) noted previously, may also now simply be interpreted as a proper bull flag (green structure) instead:

MSFT


All of these things need confirmation, followthrough and higher prices. But, across the board things look promising.

We might be concerned about this:

POLLA

It’s one of (if not the) lowest short readings ever. But: it might be okay. If you think about it, who in their right mind would be net short the market after six red weekly candles? You’d actually have to be completely retarded to do that. So, this might not be an alarming lack of bears here. I think the big question is: what are they going to do from here? Yeah, I think they want higher prices to short again. So, the masters of the universe here, if they want more sellers, they may simply have to give us higher prices anyways in order to find them.

Now a lot of people wanted the 3900-4000 range and they got it. That surprised me. And a lot of people want a rally here now, too. Now, it’s possible that we get it. And I bet that’s what makes it a trap. I think we will have a rally, and I think the whole world is going to try to sell it. And I think the lows might be in for good here. It’s possible that everyone who made money riding all the way down to 4000 where they expected, gives it all right back here shortly.

We will have to see.


Shoutout to Tina Xinia for the beautiful, royalty-free photo I have used for the “social media card” image preview associated with this post.


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