I’m Either Crazy, or I’m High: A Look at $CGC

I know that I sound like a raving lunatic right now. But, let’s take a look at the long-term chart of $CGC.

Companies like this have been utterly destroyed. This stock has lost almost 92% from its all-time high. A lot of people keep arguing that we’re in a dot-com bubble bursting, and that all the fluff needs to come out of the market, and that stocks need to go down to generational lows. But when you look at a lot of stocks where there was a lot of fluff, you can clearly see (in hundreds of examples) that the dead money has already been killed. We’ve already had the dot-com bust in hundreds and hundreds of names (and shitcoins).

Furthermore, a lot of people are insisting that stocks cannot handle higher rates. But this stock, for instance, handled 2% Fed funds rate in 2018 and fell in the last Fed pivot to lower rates. And there are many such similar examples. I think the rates are less relevant here than people are concluding.

At any rate, looking at the structure, we can clearly see an impulse wave on the left, distinct highs with no overlap, and a clear corrective wave on the right, a totally overlapping structure (where the high of pink B obviously overlaps the low of pink A). Now, the big question is: is the correction over? Stocks that have fallen can fall more, but this could very well be done. It looks like a giant 1-2. The little coil we’re building right now looks like a finished ending diagonal. And the volume has dropped off on the lowest low, much like it did at the COVID low (green arrows). We have a lovely bullish divergence coil on the weekly RSI. Things look good, in my opinion. If this is a 1-2 of cycle (yellow) degree complete, then the target for cycle 3 is around $80 (or higher). I know that sounds unlikely. But, that’s what this is telling me.


Remember when I told you that the bulls have completely vanished here? The last time we had a cluster of absent bulls surveys was just to the right of the intermediate (orange) 4 on the left side of this chart. They left right before the rally. They missed it then, and I think they’re going to miss this one, too.

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2 thoughts on “I’m Either Crazy, or I’m High: A Look at $CGC”

  1. Hej Dereck, hope you are well.
    I also three other candidates that itch me… what do you think of ZYNE and CRBP or TLRY? Would love to hear your take on them.

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