Large Structure on the S&P Revisited

I had been looking at the S&P 500 like this:

ES

The breach of the lower rail may look concerning, however, we may also simply view it like this:

ES

Bulls are likely at total capitulation here, bears at the highest confidence. And still in a bull flag of all things. So long as a structure like this remains present, I feel the upside more than I do the downside.


[UPDATE]: I want to add a point. The importance of this cannot be stressed enough. “Parallel rails” are precisely what distinguish between mere corrections and huge bearish moves. And so long as we’re only at merely parallel rails, the risk—especially right here—is an unbelievable move to the upside, rather than lower.

Now, if we fall materially below this revised parallel rail, then retest it from beneath, and then fail again, that’s where I would get concerned. But meanwhile, European indices are just hangin’ out. Why? I believe this is simply a major correction in US tech. Yes, I wish I could pin the moment it would finish. But the closest I can do is observe structures such as this as they make their appearance.


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