First, let’s take a look at the long-term picture.
From its low in 2016, it has made 3 distinct highs, but they have overlapped. This is a good candidate for a leading, expanding diagonal (red structure), an impulse wave to the upside that accommodates overlapping waves. At the high in 2021, it formed an ascending triangle that can only either be a 4th wave or a triangle “B-wave.” As it obviously failed, it’s clearly a “B-Wave.” The decline from the highs has therefore taken the form of 3-waves and stopped at support, a major, long-term trend line (green).
And so, from 2016, it is a good candidate for a 1-2 of cycle (yellow) degree:
This gives us a target of close to $140 for cycle (yellow) 3 (though it may also go to even higher extensions as well), and we would expect the journey to take years to get there:
Let’s zoom in to the price action from the recent green trend line strike.
From that low, we may count the Elon-advance as an impulse up for intermediate (orange) 1, with a 3-wave retracement that came to the 78.6% retracement level to the tick (for orange 2). A good candidate for a 1-2 if these lows hold.
Speculating a bit about the future path, the target for intermediate (orange) 3 just happens to reach the same level as the primary (pink) triangle we just fell out of. And we know that “4th” waves may also form triangles, and so perhaps we get some kind of symmetry here. If people rely on recency bias, when they see the triangle form on the right, they may not be able to resist believing that it will do the same thing that the triangle on the left just did (fall), so there’s a good chance it will rally instead. And, that whole structure itself will produce an inverse, and the whole thing might look a bit like this:
I will begin carrying this count on my “Other Selected Counts” page going forward for those who want to see how this count evolves over time.
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