Premarket Coffee Hour

My preferred view (from yesterday’s post) remains viable, as does the worse-case scenario discussed in the same post. With the FOMC statement today, anything is on the table.

If my favored view is correct, we should begin to see a significant upside swing, indicating that we are entering a 3rd wave to the upside. It would indicate that this bullish wedge—which I believe is an ending diagonal—finished on 5/20, with intermediate (orange) 5 already behind us, like this:

ES

But, if we fail to get the big rally, I would begin to suspect that the 5th intermediate (orange) wave is itself the ending diagonal, indicating that we may have one more lower low to make, like this:

ES

FOMC day is inherently unpredictable and can produce enormous and rapidly developing price swings, and so I will mostly have to watch and see what happens.


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