If the market is covertly bearish here, I would expect something roughly like this.
I would expect this choppy move down we’re in now (since 5/30 high) to be a leading diagonal of minuette (orange) degree. We would see a bounce that fails with some drama for the orange 3 of blue 1 in the coming days. Then I would expect some consolidation for the orange 4, a lower low for orange 5, and then some kind of bounce for blue 2. The orange box below is where some of this may occur as it’s an area of prior consolidation and the 50-61.8% retracement area of the advance off the 5.20 low.
After that, if the move still looks right, we may fail in an even larger degree (blue) 3 below 3700 before consolidating again in the blue 4 down there, etc. This speculation implies that minor (green) C will equal minor (green) A, but there are other fibs that would work as well.
A powerful rally taking us well over 4300 (the 5/5 high) will call this into question. If that happens, I will still be inclined to the view that we need to go to the bull flag upper rail.
That may still happen, but this rally has stalled in a weird way, and at a weird place, and so I’ve got to keep my eyes ears open to this alternative.
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