Some Morning Thoughts on $ES

In order for the ultra-bullish count to work, my expectation was for further upside in the short-term.

We’re not really seeing that just yet.

As it stands as I type this, we will open below Friday’s close. That throws a bit of a wrench into the very bullish count, as I would still expect a good gap somewhere in here.

The advance from the 5/20 low now looks a bit odd. If we’re in an impulse up, we should be consolidating and moving up, but the drop now from the 5/30 high is about 80 points and it feels like a new structure may be forming. It’s sort of a big pullback for us being in this stage of the super-bull nest. While I won’t throw that out just yet, I will add this cautionary note.

Back in my “Dark Thought” post, I pointed out a way to count this whole scooping bottom as a “B-Wave.” And if you look at the last example in that article, the fact that we haven’t continued to go higher just now leaves that on the table, as we’ve now ended up only coming to that “expanded” triangle’s trend line, like this:


I’m not predicting this per se. But until we continue to move up, it’s back on the table as a thought.

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