This morning I visited a bearish alternative that I will begin to update on the S&P 500 counts page. I will watch it until I gain clarity and until I develop a strong favoritism for one over the other. That said, I do still have a preference for the bullish scenario, and I will post a brief update here regarding that.
The bullish pennant I pointed out yesterday remains in effect, and we may simply be retesting the upper trend line of that. It is also possible that the blue “2” is something complicated like a flat, in which case we may be finishing that soon.
So, we will have to see what happens. I favor the bullish view, but am aware of the bearish view. I think the still near universal belief that this is a bear market rally should mean one of two things: 1) it’s not, or 2) if it is, it’s going to be a whole lot bigger and more time-consuming than people expect.