Checking In On the Liquidity Thermometer That Is Bitcoin

For some discussion of the longer-term view on $BTC, see this. From that low, it has the appearance of moving almost perfectly sideways ever since.

However, I believe that is somewhat of an illusion. Coming out of that low, it had three distinct highs (for green 1), followed by a very tedious—but 3-wave—retracement (green 2).

After that, it gave us a good impulse wave (for blue 1), and has since weakened, but that weakness is also arguably only in 3 waves (blue 2).

So, despite looking like it wants to die, it’s also an excellent candidate for a nest of ones and twos. And if it is about to embark on a major 3rd wave to the upside, then liquidity should also be improving generally.

BTC

As for the conclusion of the wave we’re in this second, I have the orange “c” needing one more low to complete a 5-wave structure, but on lower timeframes there are enough waves in place that it may be complete already. If it does need to make one more lower low, it shouldn’t be very deep.

The entire structure as a whole is clearly a Wyckoff pattern of either accumulation of distribution. If it’s accumulation, it should end with a decent “spring,” the notorious shove before the markup, and until this looks like something other than a nest of ones and twos, yesterday’s drop looks just like that sort of “spring.”


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