$ES Morning Update

$ES has lost much of the contraction in price that had made for such a good looking triangle.

That said, I see little reason to entirely doubt this structure as a wave 4. It may be that it’s a more simple a-b-c flat instead. It may terminate at a horizontal lower rail, like this:


Or it may go all the way to parallel rails, like this:


But in either case, I continue to expect it to gain a foothold soon. At this time, I have little doubt that such a long and drawn out wave 4 is serving the function of making bulls lose their nerve in an uptrend.

Coming out of the COVID low (also a major low), for instance, saw an initial rally, followed by six days of consolidation before the rally resumed. We’ve now also consolidated for six days here.

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