My Apple count from earlier shows two optimistic alternatives. It is based, in part, on my belief that the vast majority of people expect the rally we’ve had to fail. And I would like to think the majority will be wrong about that.
However, given the rally, it’s not as clear to me now just how bullish or bearish people are at this point. So, I am going to discuss a possibility that I will be taking hedges for.
Apple is in a large bullish wedge (red structure). It can be done now, but it may also need another lower low. Just as the advance off the 5/20 low may be counted as an impulse, it may also arguably be counted as only a 3-wave move (the blue a-b-c).
If that’s the case, then we may have a leading diagonal lower, and this stubborn, grindy rally of the last two days a “2” (orange degree) This would probably entail us falling below the target box of the less optimistic (but still optimistic) count from earlier.
So, I have to suppose that just about anything is still possible here. If the rally has actually made too many people believe that a major low is in, I can definitely see another shakeout. Have people given up on the thought that the rally will fail? I am unsure.
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