Until We See a Range Breakout, Many Possibilities Remain

We remain held hostage by yields which haven’t yet turned sharply lower. Tech won’t rally strongly until they do. I do expect them to, but until then, the lethargy may continue.

We still haven’t left this tedious trading range, and that leaves us with a ridiculous number of plausible paths.

My preferred view remains that I hope a 4 has been completed, and that we’re now impulsing up. If so, we’re in a low-degree “2” today, and we should see a powerful rally that takes us up and out of the range finally:

ES

One alternative is that the 4 is not yet complete, and needs another internal leg. If so, we may revisit the lower end of the range, but we may also fall short, as “e” waves often do. This will closely resemble the count above, with the exception that we would have to start the red count from scratch again:

ES

And finally, if we break down from the range, then something really weird and exotic is happening.

We could be in some very complex corrective rally, like this:

ES

Or a much stranger impulse wave like this:

ES

In either of the last two cases, I would not expect us to lose the 5/20 low. I expect that to stay intact for quite some time still. And in fact, regardless of which of these unfold, I still do expect ultimately higher prices.


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