Things no doubt look grim, and yet the psychology of the schematic I will present below is grim by design.
If I were asked to label the price action of the S&P 500 since May as an accumulation (you asked, didn’t you? lol), here is how I would do it:
And, as odd as it all seems if your ears are wide open to the news and all the Twitter FUD, it actually conforms quite well. You see, if this were a bear market, I would be far more confident about it being that had we rallied really powerfully before a good puke. The fact that they have kept prices smashed pretty low, keeping it in a range (so far), might be a good sign. Why keep it smooshed so low? I’m a firm believer that if they want to “distribute,” they have the power to mark things up quite a bit more first so they can unload inventory at higher prices. You think there aren’t a million more shorts out there they could’ve squeezed?
The fact that we never even managed to get up to (let alone through) the May 4th high is pretty impressive. It seems to me that they want lower prices. And why? To scare the shit out of everybody, I would imagine. That’s what I would do, anyways.
So, yes, things look grim, but we haven’t even left a trading range yet. And if this is the “spring,” it’s scary by design. It’s not designed to make us feel confident that everyone else is scared. It’s got to feel real. It’s got to make everyone a doubter. And even I am unsure if this will be saved. And that’s what a spring should do. So, let’s see what happens from here.
Just don’t rule this out just yet.
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