$ES Morning Update

I would like for the things discussed yesterday to matter for equities. But, we do need to see some strong movement up to prove itself. If that proof doesn’t come, it is of course possible that we don’t have a bottom in yet. I will note one structural feature that I can see here.

We have a bullish wedge. We “underthrew” it, and I’ve been hoping that was the bottom and that we would reverse with some gusto. However, I will note that we still haven’t even managed to get back inside the wedge and so there is still risk as the lower rail has only proved to be overhead resistance so far. We might break back inside today, as “Quad Witching” can be extremely volatile.

ES

But, if we lose yesterday’s low with any kind of violence, I don’t have any great targets from our local structures. I would simply have to look to these next two greater fibs from the COVID crash low through the all-time-high:

ES

On the other hand, if we do get a big rally, I would still expect a strong move up to the “neckline” of my proposed inverse in the 4th chart from this article, or the green arrow area here:

SPY


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