Short-Term Inclinations on $ES

Cash and futures don’t look well-aligned (holiday trading sessions can do that). While $SPY looks to have a leading diagonal already complete (see here), futures may only just now be completing one of its own. The rally from 6/17 looks too smooshed to be a standard impulse wave, so I am going to presently count it like this:

ES

It can mean a permanent low is in (if it’s a “1”) but it still may also only be an “a.” In either case, if it’s complete, we may see a pullback, followed by at least a second rally. If this is an “a,” we’ll only see one more rally, if a “1,” we’ll eventually see two more.


If we do get a pullback soon but take out the 6/17 low, then I would look to the bad things next (here, here). My only plan here so far is to try to remain both long and short, and take profits and re-enter in both directions for a while, trading fairly light until I see something I really like.

Today, for a gap up of this size, breadth is very “meh.” This is mostly Tesla, and that’s not confidence-inspiring. It would be great to embark on a strong short squeeze sooner rather than later, but we might not be ready yet.


[UPDATE]: I have made a revision to the idea in this post here.


Note: When articles are first posted, most of them are made available only to my Patreon supporters (I do try to publish some public posts on occasion). Over time (usually after a period of a few weeks or so), I make all of the work public. To gain access to my work when it is produced, please consider becoming a patron. More information may be found on my About page and on my Patreon page. In a nutshell, patrons of any denomination (you get to pick the amount) will be able to read my weekend analyses, Tier 1 members ($20/mo.) get access to all of the articles I write, and Tier 2 members ($35/mo.) get access to those, plus counts on other instruments and my Discord chatroom.


One thought on “Short-Term Inclinations on $ES”

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *